What does the data tell us about Toronto bike theft risks and prevention?

Toronto commuters know traffic and public transit delays all too well. Cycling can be an efficient, healthy, and convenient way to get around the city. It can be faster than walking, sitting in traffic, or dealing with transit delays and it’s an excellent aerobic exercise for adults different ages and skill levels. As a Toronto cyclist myself, I know that many of my fellow cyclists are worried about their bikes being stolen. We hear about bike thefts all the time and we’re all familiar with the narrative that bikes are more likely to be stolen downtown. Is your bike really more likely to get stolen in downtown, or is the higher number of bike thefts downtown simply due to higher cyclist volume?

A snapshot of bike theft trends from the past decade

The good news is that bike thefts are not on the rise in the City of Toronto. The bad news is that if your bike gets stolen, you’re probably never going to get it back. No matter where in Toronto it was stolen.

Toronto bike thefts peaked in 2018, but have been trending downwards since 2020. There were fewer bike thefts in 2022 and 2023 than in 2014

Once a bike is stolen, it is probably gone forever. Stolen bikes are even less likely to be found now than in 2014.

Since 2014, an average of 3499 bikes were stolen each year in Toronto. My analysis found that bike thieves are almost always successful, but they have not been emboldened over the last decade. Less than 1% of bikes stolen since 2021 were recovered and returned to the owner. From 2014 until the peak in 2018, bike thefts were increasing in Toronto. However, bike thefts decreased between 2020 and 2022, and there were fewer bike thefts in 2023 than in 2014.

Even if bike thefts are not on the rise, knowing where they happen is an important step towards protecting your bike. Hover over the figure below to see the percentage of bike thefts that occurred at apartments/houses, outside, commercial, educational , transit, and other premises.

Figure 1: The percentage of Toronto bike thefts each year per premise type has remained stable since 2014. Most bikes are stolen from a residence (apartment or house) or outside.

This graph reveals some important insights about bike thieves’ favorite premises. Bike thieves love to target bikes left unattended at cyclists’ residences (both houses and apartments) and outside, but they have not had much success on commercial, educational, or transit premises.

Since 2015, more bike thefts have taken place at a residence (house or apartment) than any other premise. In 2014, nearly one-third more bike thefts took place at houses than apartments. In 2024, there were nearly twice as many bike thefts at apartments compared to houses. The overall share of bike thefts that took place residences (including both houses and apartments) remained stable between 2014 and 2023 but it peaked in 2020 when many people stayed home due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The share of residence bike thefts at apartments has increased over time, while the share of residence bike thefts at houses has decreased over time. According to 2017 census data, more Torontonians live in apartments than houses, but it is difficult to draw a conclusion about risk of bike theft based on type of residence because the data does not reveal anything the number of Toronto cyclists who live in apartments versus houses. There is no evidence that living in a house or apartment puts a cyclist in Toronto at a higher risk of having their bike stolen, but one thing is clear: most bikes are stolen from the cyclist’s home. Securing your bike at home is an easy and effective way to prevent it from being stolen, regardless of the type of home you live in.

What you really need to know about downtown bike thefts

Yes, the highest concentration of bike thefts in 2023 is in and around the downtown core. No, this does not mean your bike is more likely to get stolen downtown.

Figure 2: If we use high-capacity bike parking locations to measure cyclist volume, the Toronto neighbourhoods with the most bike thefts in 2023 are the ones with the highest cyclist volume.

When we compare the locations of reported bike thefts from 2023 and City of Toronto designated bike parking side-by-side, we see two very similar maps. Data about the number of cyclists and unattended bikes in each Toronto neighbourhoods is not readily available, so I have used the locations of City-owned high-capacity outdoor bike parking facilities to get an idea of which neighbourhoods have more cyclists, and therefore more unattended bikes.

This reveals some important insights about bike theft risk in different parts of Toronto:

We saw that most bike thefts

Although we saw consistent trends in the breakdown of yearly bike thefts by premise type between 2014 and 2023 across the City of Toronto, different neighbourhoods have different high-theft premises. There is variation among the top 10. Most bike thefts in the Yonge-Bay corridor took place outside or by a commercial building; this makes sense because there are very few residential buildings in that area and many office buildings.

Figure 3: 10 busy downtown neighbourhoods, out of Toronto’s 158 neighbourhoods account for 41% of the bike thefts since 2014 due to high cyclist volume.

Unsurprisingly, the ten neighbourhoods that have had the most bike thefts since 2014 are in downtown. But is your bike really at a higher risk of being stolen in the Yonge-Bay Corridor than any other Toronto neighbourhood? Not necessarily.

Figure 4: Bike theft premise trends in the 10 neighbourhoods with the most thefts are similar to the city overall. University is a notable outlier, with more than half of its bike thefts taking place on educational premises at the University of Toronto St. George Campus.

This section focuses on 2023 because the bike parking location data I obtained is from 2023. Bike parking locations in 2023 may not have existed back in 2014.

5 most affected neighborhoods and premises where bikes were stolen from in 2023

North York, near Yonge and Finch, saw a high concentration of bike thefts in 2023. This is particularly concerning because the bike parking facility data obtained from Open Data Toronto shows no City of Toronto bike parking facilities in that area or at that intersection. This indicates that cyclists who live in the neighbourhoods surrounding Yonge Street in North York may be at a higher risk of having their bikes stolen. If you are a cyclist who lives in North York near Yonge Street and you leave your bike outside at any time of day, it might be a good idea to invest in an effective bike lock.

Your bike is not more likely to be stolen downtown

Figure 5: Only 0.73% of stolen bikes were recovered in 2023, but in 8 of the 10 neighbourhoods with the most bike thefts since 2014, no stolen bikes were recovered in 2023. While the risk of bike theft is not higher here, the chances of recovering a stolen bike are lower.

While living in one of these neighbourhoods may not put you at a higher risk of having your bike stolen, the already slim chance of finding a stolen bike is virtually non-existent.

Data-Driven Tips for Toronto Cyclists

Even though bike thefts are on the rise, over 99% of bikes stolen since 2021 were never found. Unfortunately, once a bike gets stolen, there is not much you can do. Prevention is key, so here are some things every Toronto cyclist should consider:

• Your bike is probably no more likely to get stolen, but even less likely to be recovered if it is stolen downtown than in any other part of Toronto. 0.73% of stolen bikes across Toronto were recovered in 2023, but not a single bike stolen in the busy Yonge-Bay corridor has been recovered since 2021.

• Bike thieves love apartments and houses. If you live in an apartment, consider keeping your bike inside a your unit or your building’s bike storage facility. I know that this is not an option for every cyclist in an apartment, so if you really have to leave your bike outside consider using two high-quality bike locks. If you live in a house, consider storing your bike inside a shed, garage, or your house instead of your front porch or anywhere else outside.

• Double-lock your bike, especially if you leave it on an outdoor rack or pole, or anywhere on the University of Toronto’s St. George Campus. One limitation of this suggestion is that information about the percentage of stolen bikes that were locked and what type of lock was used is not available, but it doesn’t hurt to take extra precautions.

• There is reason to believe that bike thieves love the University of Toronto St. George Campus. Nearly half the bike thefts reported in the University neighbourhood since 2014 took place at an educational premise. If you’re a student rushing between classes, securing your bike is absolutely worth it. Students and faculty at the University of Toronto can access a Bike Enclosure Room on campus, so this might be something to consider as well.

• There is reason to believe that risk of bike theft may be elevated in North York. The highest concentration of high-capacity bike parking facilities and bike thefts is in 10 busy downtown neighbourhoods. However, there is a cluster of 2023 bike thefts in North York, specifically the Yonge-Doris, East Willowdale, Willowdale West, and Newtonbrook West neighbourhoods. These neighbourhoods have zero high-capacity bike parking facilities, so the number of thefts there might be disproportionately high. One limitation of this is that locations of high-capacity bike parking faciities aren’t a perfect way to measure cyclist volume. Locations of high-capacity bike parking were used to get an idea of high cyclist volume areas because the City of Toronto may be more inclined to build these facilities where there is demand for them.